Self-driving cars
Self-driving cars have been in the news a lot recently, for example here.
Two things seem clear to me about self-driving cars. First, it's an exciting new technology which at some stage in the future will be a massive game-changer in the way we travel. Second, it's not yet ready for prime time.
I wouldn't like to make predictions about when we will all be travelling around in self-driving cars and laughing at the days when we actually had to do such a menial task as steering a vehicle ourselves, but one thought has recently occurred to me about the barriers that have to be overcome before that day comes.
I strongly suspect that the main barrier to widespread adoption of self-driving cars will not be technological, but sociological. It is extremely likely that self-driving cars will be considerably safer than existing cars driven by fallible humans, once the technology is sufficiently mature. However, I also think it is likely that society will be very slow to accept that fact.
Here's the problem.
If self-driving cars are safer than existing cars, it will largely go unnoticed. If a self-driving car makes a journey and no-one is killed, then it is not newsworthy.
However, if a self-driving car is involved in a crash, it will be newsworthy. Sooner or later, it is inevitable that a self-driving car will be involved in a fatal crash. When it happens, it will be all over the front pages. It may not even be the fault of the self-driving car, but that will not matter. I suspect that the headlines will all be about how dangerous self-driving cars are, and many people will believe it. The availability heuristic is very powerful.
No doubt there will then be the inevitable cry that "something must be done".
I predict that this will slow the widespread acceptance of self-driving cars. It won't matter how much safer than existing cars they are: stories of fatal accidents, however rare, in which real people get killed, are going to play far more strongly in the public discourse than any statistics about how much safer they are ever can.
So yes, in the future, I'm sure we'll all be travelling in self-driving cars, but I think progress to that point may be rather slow, and not because of technological barriers.
And talking of how we will all travel in the future, where's my jet pack? Come on, scientists, I think you've been slacking!
Very interesting. It explains recent electoral events, in that widespread concern about immigration is clearly an availability heuristic. I'm also reminded about the Dangerous Dogs Act.
Interesting read Adam. I have done a lot of thinking about autonomous vehicles too. Here in Canada the conditions are a lot different from Mountain View, California, and there are clearly going to be some major technical issues to overcome to deal with ice, significant snow, and freezing temperatures. However, necessity is the mother of invention, and I have no doubt those technical issues will be dealt with in time.
To me, it is clear that autonomous cars will increase safety by orders of magnitude. My best guess would be two to three orders of magnitude. In the USA in 2012, 34k people died in car crashes. I bet that number could be reduced to hundreds or tens once a critical mass (say > 99%) of vehicles on the road are autonomous.
Regarding the inevitable cry for “something to be done” upon the first fatal crash of self-driving cars, we, as epidemiologists, have the tools to emphasize the numbers. Yes, it is true that people will die in these cars, but many more will have had their lives saved by the technology. It is similar to the fact that we all know airplanes go down each year, yet most of us still board the airplane multiple times a year.
The conveniences and safety improvements of autonomous vehicles are simply too great to ignore. People will be able to work/sleep/eat/drink in their cars, gridlock will be almost eliminated, speeding and running red lights will be eliminated, road rage will cease to become a significant issue, et cetera. I for one am really looking forward to this, hopefully by the end of the decade!